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Marktanalyse

FMCG Retail Chains in Russia 2011

Reports-ID: 199047535
Herausgeber: RBC.research
Seitenumfang: 90
Sprachversion: Englisch
Veröffentlichung: 2011-09-15
Region: Russland
Lieferformat: pdf
Lieferfrist: 2 Werktage
Demo-Version: Download
Preis: 1.000,00 €

Kurzbeschreibung

The ninth edition of the market survey “FMCG Retail Chains in Russia” is dedicated to analysis of the development of Russian retail food chains in the post-crisis environment. The survey describes the current market situation, analyzes key mid-term trends in retail development, assesses the market volume and provides possible scenarios and forecasts for its development in 2011-2014, considering macroeconomic forecasts and trends in consumer demand.

This survey includes an analysis of changes in retail chain formats (supermarkets, hypermarkets, discounters, convenient stores) and key characteristics of Russian chains (average check, average selling space, assortment size, sales per square meter of selling area, etc). In addition, the survey analyzes current strategies employed by Russian and foreign food retailers, their advantages and disadvantages. The Federal Trade Law, which began to operate in full swing in 2010, has produced a notable impact on business conducted by retail chains. The survey contains an analysis of a number of key provisions of the Law and its application practice.

An analytical review of the market includes a description of basic parameters of, and trends in, Russia’s food retail sector, strategies and business models adopted by major companies, as well as development forecasts for retail chains and the market as a whole to 2014.

 

The survey was conducted using the following approaches and methods:

A questionnaire survey among retail chains

A desk study

The desk study was based on the following sources:

Data from printed and electronic media

Materials of conferences

Investment reports by banks

Financial reports of companies

 

Research was conducted from April to June, 2011. The report contains 37 tables and 36 charts and diagrams.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Abstract 

2

Methods

2

Table of contents 

3

List of diagrams 

4

List of tables 

6

Summary 

8

Trends in Russia’S Economic development in 2010 and first quarter 2011. Forecast for 2011-2014 

10

 

Russia’s economy in 2010 and in January - April 2011: emergence from the crisis and growth slowdown

10

 

Forecast for Russia’s economy in 2011-2014

12

 

Forecast for the global economy in 2011-2014

15

 

Retail trade development in 2010 and forecast for 2011-2014

17

 

 

Forecast for retail trade development in 2011-2014

18

 

 

Consumer inflation

19

 

 

Retail markets

21

Russia’s food chain retail market: post-crisis development

23

 

Modern retail property market

25

 

Food retail market development indicators in 2010

27

 

Market leaders' development strategies

34

 

 

Retailers' funding strategies in 2009-2010

40

 

 

Government regulation of the sector

41

 

Changes in the structure of retail formats induced by the crisis

44

 

 

Discounters

46

 

 

Supermarkets

46

 

 

Hypermarkets / cash & carry

48

 

 

Convenient stores

49

 

Key characteristics of Russian chains

51

 

 

General characteristics (average sales area, headcount, chain store traffic)

52

 

 

Range of food and non-food products

53

 

 

Private label products (PLPs)

55

 

 

Operating performance indicators of retail chains

56

 

2010 rankings of leading retail chains

59

 

M&A transactions in the food retail segment

68

 

Forecast for sector’s development in the medium term

70

 

 

Key development trends in Russia’s chain retail in 2011-2014

70

 

 

Formats development forecast for 2011-2014

75

 

Regional development of retail chains

78

 

 

Macroeconomic indicators

78

 

 

Central Federal District

83

 

 

Northwestern Federal District

84

 

 

Ural Federal District

85

 

 

Siberian Federal District

86

 

 

Volga Federal District

87

 

 

Southern Federal District

88

















































































































































Tabellenliste

Table 1. Number of mortgage loans issued, 2006-2010, thousands (for the period) 8
Table 2. Rates on loans for purchase of housing under construction, April 2011 8
Table 3. Fixed rates under standard in-house programs of leading mortgage banks for purchase of real estate on the secondary market, April 2011 9
Table 4. Top 10 banks by the volume of mortgage loans issued in 2010 10
Table 5. Dynamics of key performance indicators of Russia’s cement market in 2008-2010, thousand tons 11
Table 6. Consumer confidence index in Russia and EU countries, November 2010 - February 2011 13
Table 7. Key indicators characterizing the living standard of the population in 2009 and in January -February 2010 15
Table 8. Dynamics of key performance indicators of DIY chains, 2010 vs. 2009, % 18
Table 9. Comparison of plans and projects completed by foreign DIY retailers in 2010 23
Table 10. Consumer plans and results, 2008-2010 24
Table 11. Ratio of domestic and imported goods in the product range of general DIY chains, 2008-2011 26
Table 12. Types of Russian chains according to geographical coverage 29
Table 13. Key retail chains formats in the Russian DIY market 30
Table 14. Multi-format retail chain operators 31
Table 15. Largest federal DIY retail operators by the number of stores, 2009-2010 32
Table 16. The largest regional DIY retail operators by the number of stores, 2009-2010 35
Table 17. Characteristics of some chain hypermarkets in the Russian DIY market, 2010 40
Table 18. Changes in the number of hypermarket chain stores in 2009 - 2010 41
Table 19. Dynamics of changes in the number of stores in DIY supermarket chains in 2009-2010 42
Table 20. Characteristics of some DIY chain supermarkets, 2010 42
Table 21. The largest specialized chains in the Russian DIY market by type of specialization in 2010 44
Table 22. Characteristics of some specialized chains in the Russian DIY market, 2010 47
Table 23. DIY market leaders in terms of regional presence, 2009-2010 47
Table 24. Selling area of chain operators in the DIY market, 2009-2010 48
Table 25. Average check in some DIY chains, 2010 49
Table 26. Revenue of largest DIY chains in 2008-2010, million rubles (net of VAT) 50
Table 27. Russia’s largest cities by population size and retail turnover, 2010 52
Table 28. Regions with the greatest share of individual construction, 2010, % of total housing volume 56
Table 29. Top 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation by the volume of commissioned housing, 2010 57
Table 30. Top 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation by the volume of commissioned housing, 2009-2010 57
Table 31. Regions leading in mortgage lending volumes in 2010 58
Table 32. Top 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation by the number of DIY chain stores, 2009- 2011 62


 

Diagrammliste

Figure 1. Russia’s nominal GDP in billion rubles, 2004-2010, and forecast for 2011-2014 13
Figure 2. Comparison of real growth rates of key indicators, %, 2000-2010, and forecast for 2011-2014 14
Figure 3. Global economy dynamics in 2007-2010 and forecast for 2011-2014, % 15
Figure 4. Global commodity trade dynamics, 2007-2010, and forecast for 2011-2012, % 16
Figure 5. Nominal retail sales volume in Russia, billion rubles, 2004-2010 17
Figure 6. Nominal retail sales in Russia, billion rubles, forecast for 2011-2014 18
Figure 7. Share of markets in total retail turnover, %, 2005-2010 21
Figure 8. Number of open markets, 2005-2010 22
Figure 9. Retail sector’s contribution to Russia’s GDP, %, 2004-2010 24
Figure 10. Consumer behavior of Russian people towards food products 25
Figure11. Shopping center stock distribution across Russia, 2010 27
Figure 12. LFL sales growth rates in major companies in ruble equivalent, %, 2007-2010 28
Figure 13. Growth in the share of retail food chains in total food retail turnover in Russia (USD), 2002-2010 29
Figure 14. Degree of Russia's food retail consolidation: share of top ten companies, 2006-2010 30
Figure 15. Retailers' ruble revenue growth rates - distribution by chain type, %, 2005-2010 31
Figure 16. Changes in the shares of local/federal/foreign chains in total turnover of the retail food chain sector, %, 2003-2010 32
Figure 17. Largest players in the food retail market (the share of leading chains in total turnover of organized food retail), 2010 33
Figure 18. Share of modern chain retail in Russia’s total retail turnover, 2003-2010 34
Figure 19. Rates of increase in the number of stores within the top ten chains, %, 2005-2010 38
Figure 20. Aggregate corporate loan portfolio of banks, 2008-2010 40
Figure 21. Structure of food retail turnover by retail chain format, 2003-2010 45
Figure 22. Quantitative structure of Russian chain retail in the surveyed regions - distribution by outlet type as at the beginning of 2011 45
Figure 23. Turnover growth rates  across major retail formats (in ruble equivalent), %, 2005-2010 50
Figure 24. Private label turnover in food chains operating in Russia, rubles, 2004-2010 and forecast for 2011 55
Figure 25. M&A volume dynamics in the food retail segment, 2003 - 2010 69
Figure 26. Number of M&A transactions and average transaction amount in the food retail segment, 2003-2010 70
Figure 27. Dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators determining the retail sector’s development, %, 2005-2010 and forecast for 2011-2014 71
Figure 28. Share of retail chains in total food retail turnover - forecast for 2011-2014 * 72
Figure 29. Russia’s chain food retail consolidation level, %, forecast for 2011-2014 73
Figure 30. Growth rates of quality warehousing space in Russia, 2007-2010, forecast to 2011-2014, million sq m 74
Figure 31. Food retail turnover structure by retail chain format, forecast for 2011-2014 75
Figure 32. Vector of Russia’s food retail market development, 2010-2014 76
Figure 33. Retail turnover growth rates by federal district (as % of the corresponding period in the previous year, in comparable prices), January-December 2009-2010 78
Figure 34. Retail turnover structure by federal district, 2010 79
Figure 35. Domination of chains in RF federal districts, distribution by the number of stores as at the beginning of 2011 81