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Startseite 5 Schritte zur Markterschließung Russlands und anderer GUS-Länder Online-Shop Marktanalysen Russian transport and logistics services market in 2010-2011 and forecast to 2014

Marktanalyse

Russian transport and logistics services market in 2010-2011 and forecast to 2014

Reports-ID: 199047770
Herausgeber: RBC.research
Seitenumfang: 140
Sprachversion: Englisch
Veröffentlichung: 2011-10-17
Region: Russland
Lieferformat: pdf
Lieferfrist: 2 Werktage
Demo-Version: Download
Preis: 1.150,00 €

Kurzbeschreibung

This survey is devoted to the analysis of the latest development trends and prospects for the Russian transport and logistics services market. The survey on this subject was conducted for the sixth time.

The work provides a detailed review of the situation in the global and Russian logistics outsourcing markets, quotes the most important performance indicators of the sector in 2009-2010 and estimates for 2011, and contains a forecast for the development of major segments of the logistics market through 2014.

The survey presents, for the first time, comparative analysis between Russia and other countries with regard to such indicators as logistics costs, size of transport and logistics market, logistics outsourcing and 3PL segment.

The section “Global Transport and Logistics Market” contains an analysis of the post-crisis recovery process in major segments of the global logistics market. The markets in EU countries and China are studied in more detail, giving a timeline of financial results reported by major 3PL providers in 2010.

The survey of the Russian transport and logistics services is comprehensive in nature and contains a detailed analysis describing the development of major segments such as freight transportation, forwarding (including international operations), warehousing and management services, in 2010 and the first half of 2011. The review provides estimates for the logistics market size, including 2PL and 3PL segments, in volume and value terms.

The section “International Freight Transportation in Russia” contains data on the dynamics and structure of foreign trade freight traffic in 2008-2010 and the first half of 2011. The changes that occurred in the Russian container transport market, including transshipment in ports and carriage by rail, are analyzed.

The section devoted to the Russian warehousing services market analyzes supply and demand in the commercial warehousing property market in 2010, dynamics and structure of the storage and distribution services market, and trends in the development of the logistics market in metropolitan regions and other constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2011.

A separate section includes an analysis of competitive environment, financial performance of Russian and foreign transport and logistics companies in 2009-2010, as well the market consolidation.

The section “Potential for Growth of the Russian Transport and Logistics Services Market in 2011-2014” contains a forecast for the development of Russia’s economy and foreign trade (baseline scenario of the RF Ministry of Economic Development) and RBC.research estimates for physical and value indicators of logistics market segments up to 2014.

 

The survey was conducted in Sept.-Oct. 2011.

Report size – 140.

The report contains 57 tables and 110 charts and diagrams.

Report language – English.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Abstract

2

Table of contents

3

Summary

5

Figures

7

Tables

11

Global transport and logistics market

14 

 

Supply and demand determinants

14

 

Market segments

16

 

 

Dynamics and structure of the global transport and logistics services market

16

 

 

International freight transportation

18

 

 

Customs brokerage services

21

 

 

Contract logistics

22

 

 

Geographical structure of the global 3PL market

23

 

European market

24

 

 

Dynamics and structure

24

 

 

Major players

26

 

Chinese market

29

 

 

Dynamics and structure

29

 

 

Governmental stimulation

30

 

 

Competitive environment

30

Russian transport and logistics market

32

 

Russian economy in 2010 and the first half of 2011: recovery from the crisis and growth slowdown

32

 

Logistics costs, transport and logistics market, 3PL services: international comparisons         

34

 

Volume and structure of the logistics outsourcing market

37

 

Freight transportation market

43

 

 

Freight transportation dynamics and structure    

43

 

 

Value of the transportation services market        

47

 

 

Freight transportation by rail      

49

 

 

Freight transportation by road    

56

 

 

Freight transportation by sea     

60

 

 

Transshipments in ports

63

 

 

Inland water transport

68

 

 

Freight transportation by air

71

 

International cargo transportation market

75

 

 

Dynamics of foreign trade freight traffic   

75

 

 

Structure of export freight traffic 

77

 

 

Structure of import freight traffic

81

 

 

Freight transportation dynamics and structure by mode of transport

85

 

International container transportation

93

 

 

Structure of export container traffic        

95

 

 

Structure of containerized import traffic  

98

 

 

Container transshipments in ports         

102

 

 

Container transportation by rail  

107

 

 

Volume of the container transportation market

109

 

Warehousing services market   

110

 

 

Demand for warehousing services

110

 

 

Supply of warehousing space

112

 

 

Supply and demand balance, level of rental rates

113

 

 

Volume and structure of the warehousing property and warehousing services market

114

 

Competitive environment

120

 

 

Impact of the crisis and post-crisis development 

120

 

 

Activity of global 3PL providers in Russia           

126

 

 

Leading Russian players

128

Growth potential of the Russian transportation and logistic services market in 2011-2014

130

 

Forecast for development of Russia’s economy and foreign trade

130

 

Freight transportation market    

132

 

Warehousing services market   

135

 

Forecast for dynamics of the transportation and logistics services market

138

Tabellenliste

Table 1. Global container traffic on major routes, 2008-2009, million TEUs

19

Table 2. Global logistics costs and turnover in the 3PL services segment by region, 2009, $ billion, %

24

Table 3. Volume and structure of the European transport and logistics market by country, 2008, € billion, %

25

Table 4. Volume and structure of the European 3PL market by country, 2009, € billion, %

26

Table 5. Volume and dynamics of the Chinese logistics outsourcing market, 2005-2009, RMB billion, US$ billion and %

29

Table 6. Key indicators of Russia’s economic development, 2008-2010, % versus the corresponding period in the previous year

32

Table 7. Comparison of GDP, logistics costs and key indicators of transport and logistics markets in the U.S., Europe, China and Russia, 2009, $ billion

37

Table 8. Evident risks and consequences of the economic crisis for the Russian transport and logistics services market

37

Table 9. Average annual exchange rate of US dollar, 2006-2011, RUB/US$

38

Table 10. Inflation level and rail freight rates in Russia, 2006-2011, %

39

Table 11. Volume of 2PL and 3PL segments of the Russian transport and logistics services market, 2010, $ billion, %

42

Table 12. Volume of the Russian 3PL market (gross and net revenue of 3PL providers), 2007-2011, $ billion and %

42

Table 13. Dynamics of commercial freight transportation across all sectors by mode of transport in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons, %

43

Table 14. Dynamics of commercial freight turnover across all sectors by mode of transport in Russia, 2008-2010, billion tkm, %

44

Table 15. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover by mode of public transport in Russia, 2009-2010, million tons, billion tkm, %

45

Table 16. Russian transportation services market value by major segments (including revenues from transshipment in ports and airports), 2007-2010, RUB billion and %

48

Table 17. Handling volumes of primary types of cargo on JSCo RZD network, 2008-2010, million tons

50

Table 18. Indexation of rail freight rates in Russia, 2006-2011, %

51

Table 19. Freight revenues (income) of JSCo RZD subsidiaries from freight transportation, 2007-2010, RUB billion

52

Table 20. Cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of road transport in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons, billion tkm

58

Table 21. Volume of freight transportation by Russian sea transport, 2007-2010, million tons

61

Table 22. Volume of freight transportation by sea transport, January-June 2010 – January-June 2011, million tons, %

61

Table 23. Transshipment volumes in Russian sea ports (major ports and basins), 2009-2010, million tons, %

65

Table 24. Value of the Russian market for sea transportation and stevedoring services, 2008-2010, RUB million, %

67

Table 25. Cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of inland water transport in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons and billion tkm

68

Table 26. Cargo carried by inland water transport, January-June 2011, million tons, %

69

Table 27. Value of the Russian market for inland water freight transportation and stevedoring services in river ports, 2008-2010, RUB billion, %

71

Table 28. Ranking of the TOP 15 airlines in Russia by freight turnover and volume of cargo and mail carried, 2008-2010 (international and domestic services), million tkm, thousand tons

73

Table 29. Value of major air logistics market segments (cargo transportation), 2008-2010, RUB billion

75

Table 30. Export freight traffic volume distributed by major commodity groups, 2008-2010, million tons and %

78

Table 31. Volume of import freight traffic distributed by consolidated commodity groups, 2008-2010, million tons, %

82

Table 32. Volume of import freight traffic of mechanical engineering products in Russia, 2008-2010, thousand tons, %

83

Table 33. Volume of import freight traffic distributed by major commodity groups (4-digit TN VED codes), 2008-2010, thousand tons and %

83

Table 34. Distribution of the volume of export and import cargo transportation by rail in Russia by route, 2009-2010, million tons

87

Table 35. Volume of Russian foreign trade cargo handled in Russian, Baltic and Ukrainian sea ports, 2008-2010, million tons

88

Table 36. International container transportation in Russia, 2004-2010, million tons

94

Table 37. Volume and level of containerization of foreign trade freight traffic in Russia, 2008-2010, million tons, %

94

Table 38. Dynamics of export container traffic in Russia by consolidated commodity group, 2008-2010, thousand tons, %

95

Table 39. Dynamics of containerized export traffic from Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2010, thousand tons, %

96

Table 40. Export cargo containerization level in Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2010, %

97

Table 41. Dynamics of import container traffic in Russia by major commodity group, 2008-2010, thousand tons, %

99

Table 42. Containerization level for Russian export cargoes by major commodity group, 2008-2010, %

100

Table 43. Dynamics of containerized imports in Russia by major manufacturing country, 2008-2010, thousand tons, %

102

Table 44. Structure of the Russian container market by the volume of foreign trade and transit cargo handled in ports, 2008-2010, thousand TEUs, %

106

Table 45. Transportation of large-tonnage containers by rail on international routes, 2007-2010, thousand TEUs

107

Table 46. Dynamics of the volume of the container transportation market distributed by major segment, 2008-2010, million TEUs and %

109

Table 47. Evaluation of vacancy rates for high quality commercial warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2010, million m2

118

Table 48. Volume of the Russian market for warehousing services provided in high quality warehouses, 2007-2010, million m2, RUB billion, $ billion

119

Table 49. Revenues of major transportation and logistics companies in Russia, 2009-2010, $ million

123

Table 50. M&A deals on the Russian transport and logistic services market, 2008-2011.

125

Table 51. Dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators (RF MED’s baseline scenario), 2008-2014, 2008=100%

130

Table 52. Forecast for key indicators of Russia’s economic development (RF MED’s baseline scenario), 2009-2014, % versus the previous year

131

Table 53. Forecast for dynamics of commercial freight turnover by mode of public transport in Russia, 2008- 2014, billion tkm, %

132

Table 54. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the freight transportation market by mode of public transport inRussia, 2008- 2014, RUB billion, %

133

Table 55. Forecast for changes in the value and structure of the Russian transportation services market (including revenues from cargo transshipment in ports and airports), 2010-2014, RUB billion, %

135

Table 56. Forecast for dynamics of the value of Russian transportation and logistics services market segments, 2008-2014, RUB billion, %

139

Table 57. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market for 3PL services (gross and net revenues of 3PL providers), 2008-2014, $ billion and %

140

Diagrammliste

Figure 1. World economy dynamics in 2007-2012, % 15
Figure 2. World trade volumes, 2007-2012, % 15
Figure 3. Global transport and logistics market, 2006-2011, $ billion 16
Figure 4. Structure of the global transport and logistics services market, 2006-2010, % 17
Figure 5. Volume of the global logistics outsourcing market and 3PL segment, 2006-2011, $ billion 18
Figure 6. Global container transportation volumes, 2005-2011, million TEUs 19
Figure 7. Structure of the global container transportation market control in 2010, % 20
Figure 8. Global airfreight market, 2005-2011, $ billion 21
Figure 9. Global market for customs brokerage services, 2005-2010, € billion, % 22
Figure 10. Global contract logistics market volume, 2005-2011, € billion, % 23
Figure 11. Leading companies in the global contract logistics market, 2009, % of market turnover 23
Figure 12. Geographical structure of the global logistics market and 3PL services segment, 2009, % 24
Figure 13. European transport and logistics market volume, 2006-2011, € billion, % 25
Figure 14. Revenues of TOP 12 European logistics companies, 2006-2010, € billion, % 27
Figure 15. Revenue dynamics of leading European 3PL companies, 2009 to 2008, % 27
Figure 16. Revenue dynamics of leading European 3PL companies, 2010 to 2009, % 28
Figure 17.  TOP 12 European logistics companies by revenue, 2008-2010, € billion 28
Figure 18. Logistics costs structure in China, 2005-2009, % 29
Figure 19. Logistics costs in different countries of the world and Russia, 2009, % of GDP 35
Figure 20. Logistics outsourcing in the world and in Russia, 2009, % of transport and logistics market volume 36
Figure 21. Share of 3PL services in logistics outsourcing in the world and in Russia, 2009, % of transport and logistics market volume 36
Figure 22. Dynamics of the Russian transport and logistics services market (logistics outsourcing), 2007-2011, RUB billion and % 38
Figure 23. Dynamics of the Russian transport and logistics services market (logistics outsourcing), 2007-2011, US$ billion and % 38
Figure 24. Structure of the Russian transport and logistics market by type of services, 2010, % 39
Figure 25. Growth of Russian transport and logistics services market segments, 2010 versus 2008, % 41
Figure 26. Growth of Russian transport and logistics services market segments, 2011 versus 2010, % 41
Figure 27. Structure of commercial freight transportation in Russia by mode of transport, 2010, % 44
Figure 28. Structure of commercial freight turnover in Russia by mode of transport, 2010, % 45
Figure 29. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation across of sectors of the Russian economy, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 46
Figure 30. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover across all sectors of Russian economy by mode of transport, January-June 2011 to January-June 2010, % 47
Figure 31. Value structure of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of public transport, 2009, % 48
Figure 32. Structure of the Russian transportation services market (including revenues from transshipment in ports and airports), 2010, % 49
Figure 33. Structure of tonnage handled on rail by primary types of cargo (RZD), 2010, % 50
Figure 34. Monthly dynamics of freight tonnage handled by rail (commercial transportation, excluding industrial rail transport) in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 51
Figure 35. Rail freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 52
Figure 36. Structure of the Russian freight railcar fleet, 2009-2010, % 53
Figure 37. Largest owners of freight railcars in Russia (excluding companies belonging to RZD Holding), 2010, thousand units 54
Figure 38. Largest private operators of freight railcars in Russia (own and rented), 2010, thousand units 54
Figure 39. Structure of transportation in Russia by railcar ownership, 2005-2010, % 55
Figure 40. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover in road transport across all sectors of the Russian economy, 2008–2010, million tons, billion tkm 57
Figure 41. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation by road transport across all sectors of the Russian economy, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 58
Figure 42. Road freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 59
Figure 43. Dynamics of the value of the road freight transportation market in Russia, 2007-2010, RUB billion 60
Figure 44. Monthly dynamics of commercial sea freight transportation in Russia, January 2008– June 2011, million tons 60
Figure 45. Dynamics of commercial cargo transportation and freight turnover of sea transport in Russia, 2008–2010, million tons, billion tkm 61
Figure 46. Sea freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 62
Figure 47. Dynamics of the value of the sea freight market in Russia, 2007-2010, RUB billion 63
Figure 48. Dynamics of freight transshipment in Russian ports, 2007-2010, million tons, % 63
Figure 49. Structure of cargo handled in Russian sea ports by basin, 2010, % 64
Figure 50. Cargo transshipment volume in Russian ports distributed by major basins, 2008–2010, million tons 65
Figure 51. Monthly dynamics of commercial cargo transportation by inland water transport in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, million tons 69
Figure 52. Commercial cargo transportation volume and freight turnover of inland water transport in Russia, 2008–2010, million tons, billion tkm 69
Figure 53. Freight rate indices for inland water transport in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to  December of the previous year 70
Figure 54. Dynamics of the value of the inland water freight market in Russia, 2007-2010, billion RUB 71
Figure 55. Shares of Russian airlines in the total volume of cargo and mail carried in Russia, 2010, % 73
Figure 56. Air freight rate indices in Russia, January 2008 – June 2011, % to December of the previous year 74
Figure 57. Dynamics of GDP and foreign trade freight traffic in Russia, 2006-2012, % 76
Figure 58. Dynamics of export and import freight traffic in Russia, 2007-2012, % 76
Figure 59. Export and import freight traffic in Russia, 2005-2012, million ton 77
Figure 60. Share of China in Russia’s export freight traffic by commodity group, 2010, % 79
Figure 61. Distribution of Russia’s export freight traffic by recipient country, 2008-2010, % 80
Figure 62. Freight traffic index for major commodity groups exported by RF, January-June 2011 to January-June 2010, % 81
Figure 63. Distribution of import freight traffic in Russia by manufacturing country, 2008-2010, % 84
Figure 64. Import freight traffic index for major commodity groups, January-June 2011 to January-June 2010, % 85
Figure 65. Distribution of Russia’s foreign trade turnover (by the volume of cargo carried, excluding pipeline transport, via border crossings), 2010, % 86
Figure 66. Volume of foreign trade cargo carried by rail in Russia (export, import and transit traffic), 2007-2010, million tons 86
Figure 67. Dynamics of the volume of foreign trade cargo transportation by rail in Russia, 2010 versus 2009, % 87
Figure 68. Volume of export, import and transit cargo handled in Russian sea ports, 2007–2011, million tons 89
Figure 69. Structure of foreign trade cargo transshipped in Russian sea ports distributed by basins, 2010, million tons, % 89
Figure 70. Volume of liquid export cargo transshipments in Russian ports distributed by basins, 2009-2010 million tons 90
Figure 71. Volume of export dry cargo transshipments in Russian ports distributed by basins, 2009-2010, million tons 90
Figure 72. Volume of import dry cargo transshipments in Russian ports distributed by basins, 2009-2010, million tons 91
Figure 73. Volume of freight transportation by road between Russia and foreign countries, 2005-2010, million tons 92
Figure 74. Ratio between volumes of import and export cargo transportation on the market for international road transport, 2009-2010, % 93
Figure 75. Structure of containerized exports in Russia, 2010, % 95
Figure 76. Distribution of containerized export traffic from Russia in 2008-2010 by recipient country, % 98
Figure 77. Structure of containerized imports in Russia, 2010, % 99
Figure 78. Distribution of import container traffic to Russia by manufacturing country, 2008-2010, % 101
Figure 79. Dynamics of transshipment of Russian foreign trade cargoes in ports, 2005-2011, million TEUs 102
Figure 80. Dynamics of the Russian container market by the volume of foreign trade cargo handled in Russian and foreign ports, 2007-2011, million TEUs 103
Figure 81. Volume of containerized export, import and transit cargo handled in Russian sea ports, 2008-2010, thousand TEUs 103
Figure 82. Dynamics of container transshipment volume in Russian sea basins, 2010 versus 2009, % 104
Figure 83. Container transshipment volume in Russian sea basins, 2008 and 2010, thousand TEUs 105
Figure 84. Dynamics of container transshipment volumes (export, import, transit) in Russian sea basins, 2010 versus 2008, % 105
Figure 85. Distribution of transshipment of foreign trade container cargoes by Russian sea basins, 2010, % 106
Figure 86. Structure of traffic of large-tonnage containers carried by rail on international routes, 2007-2010, % 108
Figure 87. Value structure of the Russian container transport market by mode of transport, 2010, % 110
Figure 88. Dynamics of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Russia, 2008-2011, million m2 115
Figure 89. Amount of high quality warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2008-2011, million m2 115
Figure 90. Regional structure of high quality warehousing space in Russia, 2010, % 116
Figure 91. Distribution of high quality warehousing space by Russian regions (excluding Moscow and the Moscow Region, Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Region), June 2011, thousand m2, % 116
Figure 92. Dynamics of the amount of high quality commercial warehousing space in Russia, 2008-2011, million m2 117
Figure 93. Amount of high quality warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2008-2011, million m2 117
Figure 94. Value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2011, $ billion 118
Figure 95. Dynamics of the value of the warehousing services market, 2008-2011, RUB billion, % 119
Figure 96. Value of the market for services provided in high quality warehouses in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2008-2010, $ billion 119
Figure 97. Value of the market for services provided in high quality warehouses in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2009-2010, % versus the previous year 120
Figure 98. Dynamics of revenues of transportation and logistics companies operating in Russia in ruble terms, 2009 versus 2008, % 122
Figure 99. Revenues of the largest transportation and logistics companies operating in Russia, 2009-2010, $ million 123
Figure 100. Dynamics of GDP, industrial production and retail turnover in Russia, 2004-2010, forecast for 2011-2014, % 130
Figure 101. Forecast for growth of freight turnover of transportation companies by mode of transport, 2010-2014, billion tkm 133
Figure 102. Forecast for growth of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of transport (including revenues from transhipment in ports and airports), 2010-2014, RUB billion 134
Figure 103. Value structure of the Russian freight transportation market by mode of transport, 2014 (forecast), % 135
Figure 104. Forecast for dynamics of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Russia, 2008-2014, million m2 136
Figure 105. Forecast for growth of the amount of high quality warehousing space in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian regions, 2011-2014, million m2 137
Figure 106. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2014, RUB billion 137
Figure 107. Forecast for dynamics of the value of the Russian warehousing services market, 2008-2014, $ billion 138
Figure 108. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market of transportation and logistics services, 2008-2014, RUB billion and % 138
Figure 109. Forecast for dynamics of the Russian market of transportation and logistics services, 2008-2014, $ billion and % 139
Figure 110. Forecast for growth of the Russian transportation and logistics services market segments, 2010-2014, RUB billion 140